Revenue assumptions

Ontario Tech’s estimated operating revenues for 2024-2025 total $244.2M, the sources of which are depicted in Figure 1. These are estimated based on the following assumptions.

Enrolment growth

For the third consecutive year, Ontario Tech has seen remarkable increases in new student applications. These increases far exceed the system average for both domestic and international student demand. Ontario Tech created a plan in 2019 to increase the proportion of overall enrolment numbers represented by international students from about 7 per cent to be closer in line with the Ontario system average of 18 per cent. After investing in international recruitment and the corresponding and necessary student supports, we anticipate that international student enrolments will be about 10 per cent of the total student body in the next fiscal year ( Figure 2). Overall, it is estimated that $10.1M in additional enrolment revenues (i.e. $8.1M domestic and co-op tuition, $2M international tuition) will be realized.

However, on the heels of the strong application performance in late January, the federal government announced a plan to cap international student study permits. This will have a direct negative impact and we expect a reduction in new international undergraduate student enrolment by at least 25 per cent from last year. To put this into budget context, our new assumption is about 100 fewer international undergraduate students that could translate to a decrease of more than $3.5M in net tuition revenue. While there is an opportunity to offset this by focusing on increasing international student enrolment in course-based master’s programs, an unintended consequence of widespread media coverage of the federal government’s cap on international study permits is the perception that ‘Canada is closed’ to new international students. Between this perception, which will lead to fewer international student applications, and processing delays associated with new attestation and other bureaucratic processes, there is a chance the negative effect could be even larger than anticipated.

Grants

Although we have not yet received confirmation of additional funding flowing in response to the Blue Ribbon Panel’s recommendations, the assumption is being made that a modest amount of one time funding of approximately $2M (which represents about a 3 per cent increase to our operating grant) will be realized.

Ancillary fees

About $1.3M of additional ancillary fee revenues, associated with enrolment growth, and $1M of prior years’ deferred revenue from Technology Enhanced Learning fees will contribute a total of $2.3M in additional revenues to the 2024-2025 operating budget.

Other

Approximately $4M in additional revenues will be realized from other sources (e.g. Brilliant Catalyst contracts, interest income, commercial services).