2025-2028 estimated multi-year consolidated operating budget

Our fiscal outlook grows increasingly uncertain in the coming years. As expenses continue to climb, and traditional revenue sources remain capped, our spending capacity will continue to decline. These projected budget deficits may become a reality without sustained growth, new government funding, and cost containment. Multi-year budgeting requires a three-to-five-year view of both revenue and expense scenarios. The university has developed four potential scenarios to illustrate how the current year’s choices might affect future budgets. The impact of these four scenarios on our net bottom line are illustrated in Figure 8.

Scenario 1: Business as usual: Enrolment follows population increase. International enrolment remains steady for two years, then intake grows by five per cent. Domestic tuition remains at current levels until 2027, then increases by two per cent. International tuition increases by an average of three per cent, with similar hiring ratios and a one per cent inflation rate on non-labour cost.

Scenario 2: Efficiencies: Alters Scenario 1 by limiting hiring and delaying capital investments.

Scenario 3: Growth: Builds on Scenario 2 with an annual intake increase of an additional 125 students per year and phases in a two per cent retention improvement over four years.

Scenario 4: Government funding: Builds on Scenario 3 by factoring in the weighted five-year average FTE operating grant (i.e. non-performance-based) starting in 2027.

Most out-year expenses focus on supporting growth through faculty and staff hires, increased utility costs and capital repairs. These scenarios illustrate the scale of the revenue impacts against the expenses and the levers available to achieve a balanced budget. These levers will require difficult choices to be made. The scenarios present possible futures while also emphasizing that we cannot ‘cut’ our way out of our current fiscal situation. This does not mean that we will avoid reductions. As in past years we may have to reduce specific programs or activities to balance the budget or allocate resources to alternative priorities. To reiterate—these are just possibilities. In the past we have shown future year deficits, which have not come to pass because we have seen remarkable enrolment growth and received limited additional revenues. Our future requires us to continue to aggressively pursue traditional and alternative revenue sources and advocate for full funding from the government to support our enrolments, while also containing our costs.