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Appendix A: 2023-2027 Budget cycle scenarios

As we enter the budget-setting cycle, we have many unknowns that we expect more clarity on by the time we propose the final budget in April 2024. As noted in the Blueprint, enrolments are the largest driver of our revenue, while government policies constrain the same. To begin our discussions, we present four budget scenarios which focus on manipulating these variables (see Figures 8 and 9).

  • Scenario A: Conservative enrolment growth approach

    In this scenario (Figure 5), the assumptions for intake (Figure 6) and total enrolment (Figure 7) estimate revenues exceeding $237 million for 2024-2025, representing an $11.8 million increase from the previous budget year. At the same time, overall, full- and part-time salaries and benefits are expected to increase by almost $10.3 million compared to last year. The result is that our entire estimated revenue increase is entirely consumed, or offset, by estimated expense increases. This forecast would yield a balanced budget for 2024-2025, thanks to minimal to moderate enrolment growth and delayed expenses, counterbalanced by already approved investments in support of the Integrated Academic-Research Plan’s differentiated growth agenda.

    Figure 5. Ontario Tech's forecasted operating budget (2024-2027)
    Budget
    2023-24
    Budget
    2024-25
    Budget
    2025-26
    Budget
    2026-27
    Budget
    2027-28
    FTEs 9,491 10,466 11,071 11,379 11,532
    Domestic Tuition $64,669,634 $71,679,352 $78,265,788 $82,604,172 $84,526,565
    International Tuition $37,538,894 $43,193,256 $50,446,458 $55,471,864 $61,271,135
    Grants $84,875,745 $84,210,471 $84,848,033 $85,246,711 $85,427,310
    Ancillary Fees $15,424,288 $15,574,543 $16,878,046 $17,757,173 $18,312,707
    Other Revenue $14,539,477 $14,430,352 $13,967,566 $14,526,269 $15,107,319
    Donations $2,335,624 $2,093,643 $2,114,579 $2,135,725 $2,157,082
    Commercial Revenue $5,931,784 $5,931,784 $6,168,995 $6,415,695 $6,672,261
    Total Revenue $225,315,446 $237,113,401 $252,689,466 $264,157,608 $273,474,380
    FT Labour $122,937,975 $134,865,613 $146,754,178 $159,462,350 $173,108,802
    PT Labour $21,994,821 $20,393,662 $20,555,028 $21,483,150 $22,192,768
    OPEX $74,901,655 $75,190,463 $76,701,451 $77,815,759 $8,594,749
    CAPITAL $7,512,020 $5,747,701 $8,447,830 $7,470,069 $7,492,419
    Total Expenses $227,346,471 $236,197,439 $252,458,488 $266,231,328 $281,388,738
    PY Reserve Utilization $2,031,025 - - - -
    Net Surplus/(Deficit) $- $915,962 $230,978 $(2,073,719) $(7,914,358)

    Historically, using this same conservative approach, Ontario Tech has been able to accurately realize (i.e. within +2 percent) its enrolment projections year over year. This approach relies on minimal to moderate, yet highly predictable, enrolment growth. For the coming year, it would yield a razor-thin $916,000 surplus (i.e. less than 0.4 percent of the total revenues) for allocation. However, this surplus would not include discretionary allocation. This amount would instead be designated as restricted revenues for use in areas such as facility renewal.

    In the out years, this model creates even more budgetary uncertainty. For 2024-2025, this model includes a set aside for a modest $1.0 million academic priority fund and a $1.0 million capital fund to promote academic innovation and to address aging equipment needs, respectively. However, this budget does not show an annual surplus exceeding $3.0 million, which is necessary to build reserves for anticipated future deferred maintenance expenses. Consequently, in the out years, there would be no discretionary funds available for new expenditures followed by deficits.

    Figure 6: Forecasted undergraduate intake by headcount and fiscal year
    Column chart showing number of forecasted undergraduate domestic and international student headcount. The number of undergraduate students is forecast to increase from 2,910 in 2023-24 to 3,125 in 2026-27. The number of international students is forecast to increase from 215 in 2023-24 to 275 in 2026-27.

    Figure 7: Forecasted student enrolment (FTEs) by fiscal year
    Column chart showing number of forecasted undergraduate and graduate student enrolment, with trend lines showing the proportion of graduate and international students relative to the entire student body. The number of undergraduate FTEs is forecast to increase from 9,240 in 2023-24 to 10,367 in 2026-27. The number of graduate FTEs is forecast to increase from 820 in 2023-24 to 1,012 in 2026-27. The proportion of graduate students is forecast to increase from 9% in 2023-24 to 10% in 2026-27. The proportion of international students is forecast to increase from 11% in 2023-24 to 13% in 2026-27.

  • Scenario B: Increasing domestic tuition

    In this scenario we assume the same enrolment data as seen in Scenario A plus a 2 per cent domestic tuition increase for the out years. While this tuition increase would not keep up with current inflation and is below the previous ministry policy allowance of a 3 per cent increase per annum, it is a number we are hearing as a potential increase. Each 1 per cent increase in the domestic tuition rate is estimated to result in a modest $470,000 increase in total revenues.

  • Scenario C: Moderate growth approach with tuition Increases

    In the short term, we can mitigate the impact of the revenue restrictions by emphasizing growth. We have prepared an aggressive growth plan aligned with our Integrated Academic-Research Plan goals. In 2020, we increased our international enrolment targets, aiming to reach levels comparable to the Ontario university system average. This, coupled with reallocations (where possible) and delayed infrastructure investments, would provide at least a temporary solution to our budget challenges.

    If we increase international undergraduate intake by 10 per cent in 2025 versus 5 per cent, coupled with the expansion of professional master’s programs, while at the same time experiencing a slight increase in undergraduate persistence, it would result in 115 more Full-time equivalent student (FTE) enrolments in 2025-2026 (Figure 8), and our forecasted surplus for allocation would be $5.6 million more (Figure 9).

    It is anticipated that this approach would also require enhanced support to those areas demonstrating growth while some areas not experiencing the same would need to find more efficient ways to operate. Failing to draw this distinction could potentially impact the quality of support and education we provide to our students. More importantly, however, beyond providing a slightly more prolonged period of financial sustainability, this scenario only delays the inevitable structural impact on the budget.

  • Scenario D: Moderate growth with tuition and grant increases

    In this scenario, we assume the same enrolment in Scenario C with the addition that all domestic students, not just those in our corridor, would receive full grant funding at today’s levels. It should be noted that the Blue-Ribbon Panel may make recommendations to the Ministry of Colleges and Universities (MCU) regarding grant funding for universities, but the details of these recommendations and the MCU’s response remain unknown at this time.

Figure 8: Budgeted enrolment vs. growth enrolment (FTEs)
Line graph showing forecasted enrolment for Scenarios A through D relative to the 2023-24 Budget Estimate.
The estimated enrolment in 2023-24 for the next 3 years was as follows:
24/25: 9,979 FTEs; 25/26: 10,420 FTEs; 26/27: 10,590 FTEs
Estimates for 24/25 range from 10,466 enrolled FTEs in Scenario A to 10,500 in Scenario D
Estimates for 25/26 range from 11,071 enrolled FTEs in Scenario A to 11,225 in Scenario D
Estimates for 26/27 range from 11,379 enrolled FTEs in Scenario A to 11,600 in Scenario D
Estimates for 27/28 range from 11,532 enrolled FTEs in Scenario A to 11,775 in Scenario D
Figure 9: Corresponding net surplus (deficit) based on enrolment change
Line graph showing forecasted Net Surplus/(Deficit) for Scenarios A through D relative to the 2023-24 Budget Estimate.
The estimated Net Surplus/(Deficit) in 2023-24 for the next 3 years was as follows:
24/25: $(0.1M); 25/26: $(1.1M); 26/27: $(3.3M)
Estimates for 24/25 range from $0.9M in Scenario A to $12.5M in Scenario D
Estimates for 25/26 range from $0.2M in Scenario A to $16.7M in Scenario D
Estimates for 26/27 range from $(2.1M) in Scenario A to $17.6M in Scenario D
Estimates for 27/28 range from $(7.9M) in Scenario A to $13.6M in Scenario D